Tag: House Budget Committee

A Budget Approach That Works

How to solve the fiscal crisis and avoid financial catastrophe – a common-sense, practical nonpartisan approach that will actually WORK!

The Unity Plan: A Citizen-Driven Call for Fiscal Stability
April 29, 2025 | Charlie Sheldon, Tacoma, WA (toklatcharlie@gmail.com)

The Unity Plan, a citizen-driven proposal presented to Rep. Emily Randall’s office on April 28, 2025, seeks to counter the House Plan’s fiscal recklessness (216% Debt-to-GDP by 2050, $3.482T deficit in 2026, CBO) by projecting a balanced budget by 2054, 87% Debt-to-GDP, 174M jobs, and Social Security solvency for 50–75 years, shielding 89% of taxpayers from tariff shocks ($3,998/household, Treasury). It urgently requests CBO analysis to validate these projections.

Key Features (2026, Projected):

  • Revenue ($3.696T): 40% top tax rate (+$112B), $50K itemized deduction cap (+$150B), $75K standard deduction (-$786B), 25% corporate tax (+$200B), $520K Social Security cap (+$120B). No tariffs ($0).
  • Spending ($6.44725T): Hold discretionary spending to 2.6% growth ($65.1B savings), $100B Medicare efficiencies ($50B drugs, $50B fraud), $150B IRS tax gap recovery, $3T infrastructure via off-budget Unity Bonds ($60B start).
  • Outcomes: $2.75125T deficit, 127% Debt-to-GDP, 165.1M jobs.

Long-Term Projections (Pending CBO Review):

  • 2050: $0.4T deficit, 87% Debt-to-GDP, $77.3T debt, 174M jobs.
  • 2054: Balanced budget, $0.3T surplus.
  • Social Security: Solvent for 50–75 years (SSA).
  • Option: 1.6% Financial Transactions Tax (+$30B/year) could balance by 2053, reduce debt to $74.7T.

Why It Matters: Unlike the House Plan’s perpetual deficits and elite tax cuts, the Unity Plan aims to rebuild infrastructure, boost middle-class cash ($2,000–$10,000/year), and avoid fiscal collapse, pending CBO validation to confirm its bipartisan appeal (Treasury, SSA).

Call to Action: Urge Congress to request CBO analysis of the Unity Plan. Contact Rep. Emily Randall’s D.C. office (202-225-7761) or CRFB (info@crfb.org) to champion this Tacoma-led solution.

Request for Congressional Budget Office Analysis: Unity Plan (No Tariffs, 40%)

April 29, 2025 | Citizen Proposal by Charlie Sheldon, Tacoma, WA (toklatcharlie@gmail.com)

1. Introduction and Purpose

The Unity Plan (No Tariffs, 40%), presented to Rep. Emily Randall’s office on April 28, 2025, is a citizen-driven proposal to address the fiscal challenges posed by the House Budget Plan, which the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects will yield a 216% Debt-to-GDP ratio by 2050 and a $3.482T deficit in 2026 (CBO, 2025, p. 54). The Unity Plan projects balancing the federal budget by 2054, achieving a $0.3T surplus by 2055, reducing Debt-to-GDP from 127% (2026) to 87% (2050), creating 174M jobs, and ensuring Social Security solvency for 50–75 years, while shielding 89% of taxpayers from tariff shocks ($3,998/household, Treasury, 2025). This document requests CBO analysis to validate these projections, comparing them to the House Plan’s outcomes. It details 2026 fiscal impacts, long-term projections (2030–2050), an optional Financial Transactions Tax (FTT) scenario, implementation mechanics, and sensitivity analyses, using methodologies from CBO, Treasury, and Social Security Administration (SSA) reports.

The Unity Plan excludes tariff revenue ($0), relying on progressive tax reforms (40% top rate, $520K Social Security cap), spending restraint (2.6% discretionary growth), and efficiencies ($315.1B/year by 2027). It proposes $3T in off-budget infrastructure bonds to rebuild roads, housing, and communications, creating 3M jobs by 2050. This request seeks CBO’s expertise to assess revenue, spending, deficits, debt, jobs, and Social Security solvency, ensuring the plan’s viability as a bipartisan alternative to the House Plan’s unsustainable trajectory.

2. Fiscal Impacts for 2026

The Unity Plan’s 2026 projections are based on CBO’s 2025–2035 baseline (CBO, 2025, p. 12), adjusted for proposed policies. All figures are in trillions (T) or billions (B) of 2025 dollars, with methodologies aligned with CBO and Treasury standards.

2.1 Revenue ($3.696T)

  • Individual Income Taxes: $1.626T
    • Baseline: $1.3T (2025, scaled at 4.4% nominal growth, CBO p. 12).
    • Adjustments: +$112B (40% top rate on $3.8T above $695K, CBO p. 45), +$150B ($50K itemized deduction cap, CBO p. 48), -$786B ($75K standard deduction for 130M filers, CBO p. 45).
    • Formula: $1.3T × 1.044 + $112B + $150B – $786B.
  • Corporate Taxes: $0.5T
    • Baseline: $0.3T (CBO p. 12).
    • Adjustment: +$200B (25% rate on $5T taxable income, CBO p. 12).
  • Payroll Taxes: $1.48T
    • Baseline: $1.36T (CBO p. 12).
    • Adjustment: +$120B (12.4% Social Security tax to $520K cap, SSA p. 106).
  • Other Taxes: $0.09T
    • Excise and estate taxes, no tariffs ($0, CBO p. 12).

2.2 Spending ($6.44725T)

  • Mandatory Spending: $4.068T
    • Social Security: $1.37T (CBO p. 54).
    • Medicare: $0.96T (baseline $1.01T – $50B phased efficiency: $25B drug negotiations, $25B fraud recapture, CBO p. 68).
    • Other: $1.738T (CBO p. 54, scaled at 4.4%).
  • Discretionary Spending: $1.811T
    • Defense: $871B (baseline $849.8B × 1.026, saves $12.7B vs. 4.1% growth, CBO p. 54).
    • Non-Defense: $940B (baseline $1.942T × 1.026 ÷ 2, saves $52.4B vs. 5.3% growth, CBO p. 54).
  • Net Interest: $0.53325T
    • $35T debt × 2.5% average interest rate (CBO p. 14).
  • Infrastructure: $60B
    • Off-budget Unity Bonds, ramping to $200B/year by 2028 (Treasury, 2025).
  • Enforcement: $2.5B
    • $5B phased for IRS and Medicare fraud staff (~25,000 at $100K/year, CBO p. 52).
  • Inflation Adjustment: $32.5B
    • 0.5% on $6.15T baseline spending (CBO p. 54).

2.3 Savings ($190.1B, Phased)

  • Discretionary Savings: $65.1B
    • Hold Defense and non-defense to 2.6% nominal growth (2026–2030, ~2–3% real cut/year, ~10–15% over 5 years, CBO p. 54).
    • Calculation: Defense ($883.5B – $871B = $12.7B), non-defense ($992.4B – $940B = $52.4B).
  • Medicare Efficiencies: $50B
    • $25B drug negotiations (generics, bulk purchasing), $25B fraud recapture (AI audits), phased 50% in 2026, full $100B by 2027 (CBO p. 68).
  • IRS Tax Gap Recovery: $75B
    • $150B phased 50% from $400B tax gap via audits and AI tools (CBO p. 52).

2.4 Outcomes

  • Deficit: $2.75125T ($6.44725T – $3.696T).
  • Debt-to-GDP: 127% ($36.83465T ÷ $31T GDP, CBO p. 36).
  • Jobs: 165.1M (+0.8M from infrastructure bonds, CBO p. 36).

3. Long-Term Projections (2030–2050)

The Unity Plan projects fiscal outcomes through 2050, using CBO’s long-term methodology (CBO, 2025, p. 12). Revenue grows at 5.1% (2026–2027), 5.5% (2028–2042), and 4.5% (2043–2050), reflecting economic growth and policy impacts. Spending peaks at $6.7T (2042), declining to $6.5T with sustained savings. GDP grows at 2.5% real (CBO p. 36), reaching $88.89T by 2050.

YearDeficit ($T)Debt ($T)Debt-to-GDP (%)Jobs (M)
20302.6644.75120166
20401.8660.298171
20500.477.387174
  • Debt Calculation: $35T (2025) + $42.3T cumulative deficits – $0.3T surplus = $77.3T (2050).
  • Balance: Achieved in 2054 (revenue ~$10T, spending ~$6.5T).
  • Social Security: $520K cap ensures solvency for 50–75 years (SSA, 2024, p. 106).
  • Jobs: 174M by 2050, including 3M from $3T infrastructure (CBO p. 36).

4. Optional Financial Transactions Tax Scenario

An optional 1.6% FTT on $1,875T trading volume (25% reduction, 25% noncompliance, SIFMA, 2025) could enhance fiscal outcomes, appealing to progressive stakeholders while maintaining bipartisan tax structure.

  • 2026 Impact: +$30B revenue ($3.726T total), -$30B deficit ($2.72125T).
  • Long-Term: Balances 2053, debt $74.7T (2050), Debt-to-GDP 84% (-3%).
  • Methodology: CBO p. 45, scaled from 0.1% FTT estimates.

5. Comparison to House Plan

The House Plan, as analyzed by CBO (2025, p. 54), sustains deficits and debt growth, with minimal savings. The Unity Plan’s projections offer a stark contrast, pending CBO validation.

Metric (2050)Unity Plan (Projected)House Plan (CBO)
Deficit ($T)0.44.68
Debt ($T)77.3175.3
Debt-to-GDP (%)87216
Jobs (M)174171
Balance Year2054Never
  • House Plan (2026): $3.185T revenue ($1.505T individual, $0.3T corporate, $1.3T payroll, $0.09T other), $6.667T spending ($4.118T mandatory, $1.854T discretionary, $0.695T interest), $88B non-defense savings (CBO p. 54).
  • Unity Advantages: $315.1B savings ($65.1B discretionary, $100B Medicare, $150B IRS), $3T infrastructure, middle-class cash ($120,938 at $125K income vs. $108,726, Tax Foundation, 2025).

6. Implementation Mechanics

6.1 Unity Bonds ($3T, 2026–2042)

  • Structure: Off-budget, voluntary bonds sold to public ($60B in 2026, $130B in 2027, $200B/year 2028–2042), with $12.1875B/year from wealthy households ($5K × 3.25M) and remainder from markets (Treasury, 2025).
  • Inflation Control: Removes 0.27%–0.9% of M2 (~$22T), capping CPI at ~0.5% (vs. 4.5% if printed, BLS, 2014).
  • Redemption: 2036–2052 at $200B/year, 2.5% interest ($5B/year).
  • Administration: 500 Treasury staff ($50M/year), $10M/year ads, amend Title 31 USC.

6.2 Discretionary Spending Restraint

  • Mechanism: 2.6% nominal growth (2026–2030, ~10–15% real cut over 5 years), saving $65.1B/year vs. 4.1% (Defense) and 5.3% (non-defense) baselines (CBO p. 54).
  • Challenges: Resistance from defense contractors (e.g., Lockheed Martin, $70B contracts) and social program advocates (e.g., NEA, $20B education budget).

6.3 Enforcement Investments

  • Staffing: 25,000 hires ($5B/year, $2.5B in 2026) for IRS audits and Medicare fraud detection, recovering $150B (tax gap) and $50B (fraud) by 2027 (CBO p. 52).
  • Technology: AI compliance tools and bulk drug purchasing systems.

7. Sensitivity Analysis

To ensure robustness, the Unity Plan’s projections are tested under alternative assumptions:

  • Higher Interest Rates (3.5% vs. 2.5%): Increases 2050 debt to $82.1T (+$4.8T), Debt-to-GDP to 92% (+5%), delays balance to 2056.
  • Lower GDP Growth (1.8% vs. 2.5%): Debt-to-GDP rises to 94% (+7%), balance shifts to 2055.
  • Reduced Savings (50% efficiency): $157.55B savings ($32.55B discretionary, $50B Medicare, $75B IRS) increases 2050 debt to $80.9T (+$3.6T), Debt-to-GDP to 91% (+4%).
  • FTT Inclusion: As noted, reduces debt to $74.7T, balances 2053.

The Unity Plan requests CBO analysis to:

  • Validate revenue projections ($3.696T in 2026, $10T by 2054), including tax reforms and Social Security cap impacts.
  • Assess spending projections ($6.44725T in 2026, $6.5T by 2054), focusing on discretionary restraint, Medicare efficiencies, and IRS recovery.
  • Confirm deficit and debt trajectories ($2.75125T deficit in 2026, 87% Debt-to-GDP in 2050, balance by 2054).
  • Evaluate job creation (174M by 2050, including 3M from infrastructure).
  • Test Social Security solvency under the $520K cap (50–75 years, SSA p. 106).
  • Analyze the $3T Unity Bonds’ fiscal and inflationary impacts, comparing to WWII bond precedents (Treasury, 2025).
  • Compare outcomes to the House Plan, assessing bipartisan viability.

This analysis will confirm the Unity Plan’s feasibility as a Tacoma-led solution to the fiscal crisis, countering tariff shocks and House Plan deficits, and inform congressional action by July 2025.

9. References